United Press Internantional has released this analysis of the U-M case interviewing Peter Kirsanow, appointed by President George W. Bush to the U.S. Civil Rights Commission; and Marvin Krislov, the University’s general counsel.

Kirsanow predicts Rehnquist, Kennedy, Scalia, Thomas and O’Connor voting to overturn Bakke – ruling diversity is not a compelling state interest: “Why take a politically charged case like this,” Kirsanow asked, “if (the court) is not going to make a bright-line ruling?” He disagrees with the brief filed by President Bush – that argues diversity is a compelling state interest but the U-M policy constitutes quotas.

Krislov says he is “cautiously optimistic” the court will uphold the “Bakke principal,” although declining to predict how the U-M policies will fare. He also highlights an interesting factoid – according to studies submitted in the case “without the affirmative action programs, minorities would have made up only 4 percent of the [U-M Ann Arbor] population in 2000, instead of the 14 percent that was achieved.” And the University already has the socio-economic affirmative action trumpeted by conservatives.